Assessment on Shovi Disaster Released by the National Environment Agency

The National Environment Agency has issued its preliminary assessment regarding the causes behind the Shovi catastrophe. The report attributes the extreme mudflow in the Bubisskali river valley on August 3, 2023, to a confluence of natural geological and hydrometeorological processes.

The assessment reveals that the region experienced intense glacier melting, rainfall, rock avalanches at the source, and landslides, all leading to mudslides in Racha.

While many factors contributed to the sudden natural event, the Ministry of Environmental Protection maintains that such events' precise timing remains almost impossible to predict globally.

The comprehensive 11-page report encompasses geological, meteorological, and hydrological observations, both historical and recent. Sources include satellite, radar, and aerial imagery, camera-processed field data from hydrometeorological and geological studies, and an amalgamation of expert knowledge. As a primary conclusion, it's anticipated that details within may undergo revisions or clarifications in the final report.

The sequence of events as per the agency's document is as follows:

1. On August 3, a series of natural events converged in the Bubisskali valley. These included glacier melt, rainfall, rock avalanches, landslides, and subsequent mudslides, culminating in an extreme mudflow.

2. Field studies identified a rock mass collapse near the Bubi glacier. This mass, upon movement, interacted with the glacier, potentially causing an overflow of subglacial waters. This overflow rapidly traveled down the valley.

3. This sequence was exacerbated by higher atmospheric temperatures, climate-induced glacier melt, and atmospheric precipitation. The moving rocky and glacial materials evolved into a glacial mudflow higher up in the valley.

4. As this traveled downstream, it eroded valley slopes, leading to landslides along the riverbanks. New landslide zones emerged along the Bubisskali river and its tributaries.

5. As the mudflow traveled, landslide debris from eroded banks merged with it. This combined force traveled through the valley without any significant water stagnation either prior to or during the event.

6. A potent mix of mud and rock surged downstream, spreading over approximately 26 hectares in Shovi's "cottage district" in about 15 hours and 15 minutes, engulfing structures and unfortunately resulting in loss of life.

Preliminary estimates suggest that from the disaster's inception, it would've taken the floodwaters just 8-10 minutes to reach the cottage area in Shovi.